That is my extracted commentary from this mornings technical video. If you wish to study analyzing the market value motion, I feel it has some classes. I’ll clarify extra under. Check out the video first.
Lesson 1. Know what the bias is.
Sure.. the worth moved greater right now, however general, the greenback is king and what meaning is the GBPUSD patrons want to indicate they’ll take management. From the standing begin right now, the hourly chart was my focus and the worth is greater, BUT as outlined, the worth continues to be under the 50% of the development transfer down from the excessive on Thursday. I selected that top becaue on that day the worth examined the 100 hour MA and located sellers in opposition to that degree. Sellers have been in management they usually pushed the worth decrease.
The 50% is a key hurdle in figuring out bias for me. Sure, the worth moved above the 50% on Monday, however closed again under the extent. In buying and selling right now, the worth moved again towards it, however couldn’t attain it. The 50% was additionally close to the shut from final week. I believed sufficient of that degree to speak about it as nicely. Being under every continues to be a bearish bias. The worth can be under different ranges together with the falling development line and the 100 hour MA. I remark that in the end if the patrons are to take extra management, these are additionally upside targets to get to and thru.
Lesson 2: Drill down. See if the market is giving every other clues technically from a shorter time period value and technical perspective.
From the hourly chart, within the video I select to drill all the way down to the 5 minute chart for bais clues. Why? If you’re in search of a change within the bias, the shorter time period chart typically is the place quick time period merchants will begin to lean and shift. Merchants want clues from the worth motion NOW and that bias wants to remain within the favor of the counter development..
So trying on the 5 minute chart, I noticed the corrective transfer decrease yesterday and into right now, stall close to the 50% retracement of the transfer up from the low yesterday. Morever, the rally right now was seeing the 100/200 bar MAs (blue and inexperienced line) holding assist.
This can be a snapshot from the video with some feedback I simply added.
I warned within the video for “giggles” to look at the 200 bar MA for brief time period clues. Transfer under might shift the bias again down with the 50% because the goal.
So what occurred?
The GBPUSD on the 5 minute chart ended up falling under the “only for giggles” 200 bar MA (inexperienced line within the chart above). The autumn was measured /restricted with up and down value motion (see chart above), however be aware how the 100 bar MA (blue line on the chart under), held resistance. The bias was shifting extra to the draw back.
Finally, the worth did transfer extra to the draw back with momentum. That transfer took the worth from the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.0770 to the US low at 1.0657. Not a nasty transfer.
The low did entice dip patrons forward of the 50% at 1.06414, and we’re seeing a rotation again towards the now falling 100/200 bar MAs going into the shut.
The purpose is… the morning movies are a strategy to get your arms round some key ranges and likewise to know a thought course of given the bias, the danger ranges, the view from longer, intermediate to generally even shorter time period charts.
So be sure you test the movies out every day.
You will discover the total video from this morning HERE.